Date of Award

Spring 2019

Document Type

Thesis

Department

Mathematics, Engineering & Computer Science

First Advisor

Ted Wendt

Second Advisor

Eric Sullivan

Third Advisor

Peter Larsen

Abstract

This analysis presents a model that could be used to inform a portfolio manager in which sectors of the stock market to invest in for the equity portion of an investment portfolio. The model incorporates a linear program to suggest the optimal combination of sectors to invest in with respect to various constraints. We use a linear projection model to estimate the upcoming month’s return of each sector, with monthly changes in economic indicators as inputs. The time frame for the historical returns data that we use to build the model runs from 8=1=2008 - 9=1=2018. Additionally, we apply a Monte Carlo simulation to the projected returns over one hundred thousand iterations. The model suggests which combination of sectors may offer the highest return on investment with consideration to the potential volatility of each sector.

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