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    Burning Down the Cost: A Study to Optimize Wildfire Expenses

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    KingJ_2014_Final.pdf (1.425Mb)
    Author
    King, Joe
    Advisor
    Prof. Eric Sullivan; Prof. Philip Rose; Prof. Doug MacKenzie
    Date of Issue
    2014-04-01
    Metadata
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    URI
    https://scholars.carroll.edu/handle/20.500.12647/3391
    Title
    Burning Down the Cost: A Study to Optimize Wildfire Expenses
    Type
    thesis
    Abstract
    The cost of wildfires has been climbing drastically. In 2012, the total estimated cost for Montana wildfire suppression was $113.5 million. The goal of this research was to see if it was mathematically possible to minimize wildfire cost while ensuring that a fire is efficiently suppressed. A linear program(LP) was designed to minimize suppression cost while allocating the required hand, air, and equipment crews to specific stages of a wildfire. Two scenarios are implemented into the linear program, where optimal solutions are found. First, a one wildfire scenario is simulated. Secondly, the most extreme fires of Montana's 2012 wildfire season are simulated. Finally, the LP's optimal results, are compared and analyzed with the actual 2012 fire results. Based on the model's outcomes, it was found that dispatch centers with more available equipment, ready to suppress a wildfire, had a lower suppression cost. Although the model manages to meet management requirements, it doesn't account for intangible factors that go into decision making. In conclusion, the linear program provides an optimal solution for wildfire decision management, and under given constraints will efficiently determine the lowest cost while meeting suppression requirements.
    Degree Awarded
    Bachelor's
    Semester
    Spring
    Department
    Mathematics, Engineering & Computer Science
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    • Mathematics, Engineering and Computer Science Undergraduate Theses

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